Evaluation of the impact of various macroeconomic factors on the economic growth of Ecuador, 1965-2018.
Main Article Content
Abstract
The measurement of economic growth, through its main indicator, the Gross Domestic Product, is essential for those responsible for the economic policy of a country. There are three different ways of calculating the Gross Domestic Product, one of them is the spending method that includes five important macroeconomic variables in its calculation. This research aims to quantify the incidence of each of these variables in the economic growth of Ecuador. For this, using the information corresponding to these variables for the period 1965-2018, the equation for the calculation of the Gross Domestic Product by the expenditure method was estimated, by means of a multiple linear regression by ordinary least squares, once it was statistically validated, the standardized coefficients of each macroeconomic variable involved in it were analyzed to assess how decisive it is for the Gross Domestic Product of Ecuador. It was shown that consumption is the variable that has the greatest weight to generate aggregate demand, followed by exports, conversely, investment is revealed as the macroeconomic variable that has the least impact on Ecuadorian economic growth. As fundamental conclusions, it was determined that consumption is the main determinant of economic growth in Ecuador, so that policies that reduce it directly affect economic growth, and it was also found that investment is the component that least impacts, which implies need to design policies that encourage it.
Downloads
Article Details
COPYRIGHT NOTICE
Authors who publish in the INNOVA Research Journal keeps copyright and guarantee the journal the right to be the first publication of the work under the Creative Commons License, Attribution-Non-Commercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0). They can be copied, used, disseminated, transmitted and publicly exhibited, provided that: a) the authorship and original source of their publication (magazine, publisher, URL and DOI of the work) is cited; b) are not used for commercial purposes; c) the existence and specifications of this license of use are mentioned.
References
Abel, A. B., & Bernanke, B. S. (2004). Macroeconomía, 4ta. Ed. Madrid: Pearson Educación.
Achen, C. H. (1982). Interpreting and Using Regression. Beverly Hills: Sage.
Anderson, D., Sweeney, D., & Williams, T. (2008). Estadística para administración y economía. 10ma. Ed. México D.F.: Cengage Learning Editores, S.A.
Banco Central del Ecuador. (2020). Estadísticas del sector real. Obtenido de Información Económica: https://contenido.bce.fin.ec/documentos/Administracion/CuentasNacionalesAnuales.html
Case, K. E., & Fair, R. C. (2008). Principios de macroeconomía, 8va. Ed. México D. F.: Pearson Educación.
Court, E., & Williams, E. (2011). Estadísticas y econometría financiera, 1ra. Ed. Buenos Aires: Cengage Learning Argentina.
Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S., & Startz, R. (2009). Macroeconomía, 10ma. Ed. México D. F.: McGraw-Hill/Interamericana Editores, S.A. de C.V.
Fernández Montt, R. A. (2006). Regresión lineal. Multicolinealidad perfecta. Obtenido de Enciclopedia multimedia virtual interactiva: http://www.eumed.net/cursecon/medir/rfm-multico.htm
Gastón Lorente, L. (2019). Cómo calcular el PIB: Tres métodos. Obtenido de BBVA: https://www.bbva.com/es/bbva-patrocina-el-almuerzo-inaugural-de-la-cumbre-del-clima-disenado-por-los-hermanos-roca/
González González, M., Pérez Zabaleta, A., Castejón Montijano, R., Méndez Pérez, E., Martínez Merino, J., Gómez Barroso, J., & Mochón Sáez, A. (2009). Introducción a la economía, 2da. Ed. Madrid: Pearson Educación.
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2010). Econometría. 5ta. Ed. México, D. F.: McGraw Hill Educación.
Jahan, S., Saber Mahmud, A., & Papageorgiou, C. (09 de 2014). ¿Qué es la economía keynesiana? Obtenido de Revista Finanzas y Desarrollo. Fondo Monetario Internacional.: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/spa/2014/09/pdf/basics.pdf
Kiziryan, M. (2019). Demanda agregada. Obtenido de Economipedia: https://economipedia.com/definiciones/demanda-agregada.html
Lind, D., Marchal, W., & Wathen, S. (2012). Estadística aplicada a los negocios y la economía. 15ta. Ed. México D.F.: McGraw Hill/Interamericana Editores S.A. de C.V.
Mahadeva, L., & Robinson, P. (2009). Prueba de raíz unitaria para ayudar a la construcción de un modelo. Obtenido de Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos: https://www.cemla.org/PDF/ensayos/pub-en-76.pdf
Mankiw, N. G. (2014). Macroeconomía, 8va. Ed. Barcelona: Antoni Bosch editor, S.A.
Montero Granados, R. (2016). Modelos de regresión lineal múltiple. Documentos de Trabajo en Economía Aplicada. Universidad de Granada. España.
Parkin, M., Esquivel, G., & Muñoz, M. (2007). Macroeconomía. Versión para Latinoamérica, 7ma. Ed. México: Pearson Educación.
Pulido San Román, A., & Pérez García, J. (2001). Modelos econométricos. Madrid: Ediciones Pirámide.
Samuelson, P. A., & Nordhaus, W. D. (2010). Macroeconomía con aplicaciones a Latinoamérica, 19na. Ed. México D. F.: McGraw Hill Educación.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Introducción a la econometría. Un enfoque moderno. 4ta. Ed. México, D. F.: Cengage Learning.